Transition probabilities
| Parameter | Probability* | Source |
| Decision tree | ||
| N0 after nCRT | 0.689 (α=111; β=50) | van Hagen et al1 |
| Treatment success rate standard LND | 0.938 (α=167; β=11) | van Hagen et al1 |
| Treatment success rate of selective LND | 0.92 | de Gouw et al6 |
| Unnecessary LND rate of selective LND | 0.10 | de Gouw et al6 |
| Chance of pneumonia | 0.523 (α=1120; β=1023) | DUCA database11 |
| Chance of chyle leakage | 0.150 (α=153; β=870) | DUCA database11 |
| Chance of laryngeal nerve paresis | 0.123 (α=99; β=708) | DUCA database11 |
| Chance of chyle leakage when pneumonia is present | 0.099 (α=111; β=1009) | DUCA database11 |
| Chance of laryngeal nerve paresis when pneumonia is present | 0.067 (α=65; β=899) | DUCA database11 |
| Chance of laryngeal nerve paresis when chyle leakage is present | 0.049 (α=7; β=135) | DUCA database11 |
| Chance of laryngeal nerve paresis when pneumonia and chyle leakage are present | 0.119 (α=12; β=89) | DUCA database11 |
| Relative risk of pneumonia without LND | 0.689 (IQR 0.457–1)† | de Gouw et al6 |
| Relative risk of chyle leakage without LND | 0.276 (IQR 0.065–0.526)† | de Gouw et al6 |
| Relative risk of laryngeal nerve paresis without LND | 0.431 (IQR 0.154–1)† | de Gouw et al6 |
| Remaining OR time without LND | 0.800 (IQR 0.667–0.833)† | de Gouw et al6 |
| State-transition model | ||
| Chance of recurrence in patients with N0 after nCRT | 0.475 (α=28; β=31) over 7 years‡ | Shapiro et al8 |
| Chance of recurrence in patients with N1 after nCRT | 0.690 (α=80; β=36) over 7 years‡ | Shapiro et al8 |
| Chance of palliative care in patients with residual LN metastases | 1.00 | Assumption |
| Standard death rate | Age dependent mortality rates | Statistics Netherlands18 |
| Cancer related death (‘palliative treatment’ to ‘death’) | 0.930 (α=159; β=12) over 2 years‡ | Parry et al19 |
*β-distributions were assigned to the parameters for use in the probabilistic sensitivity analysis. The characteristics of the β-distribution are presented between brackets, as an α and β value (where α represents the number of events in a sample and β the number of non-events).
†Data was sampled from the original study data.
‡Probabilities were converted to bi-annual probabilities using the formulas: r=- log (1-p) and p=1 - e(-rt).20
DUCA, Dutch Upper Gastrointestinal Cancer Audit; LN, lymph node; LND, lymph node dissection; N0, no lymph node metastases; N1, presence of lymph node metastases; nCRT, neoadjuvant chemotherapy; OR, operating room.